What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

Oakland, (Piedmont Side of Montclair)

Sold past 1-6 months (n=49) median (med) $1,875,000 Days on Market (DOM)=12

Sold past 7-12 months (n=46) med $1,858,250 DOM=13

This suggests a primary (year) change of +0.907%. This is considered stable.

Sold past 1-3 months (n=24) med $1,705,000 DOM=13

Sold past 4-6 months (n=25) med $2,050,000 DOM=12

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -16.829%.

There are 11 current active listings ranging from $995,000 to $2,695,000 with median DOM at 16 days. Range 2 – 79 days.

There are 12 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $995,000 to $5,250,000 with median DOM at 12 days. Range 6 – 17 days.

So, what’s going on? The review form 8/31 suggested a primary increase of 4.079% and a secondary (quarter to quarter) decrease of 20.201%. It appears that the secondary decrease has softened some and the primary trend has effectively become stable. Looking back to our 2007 trends for the same period, we see that the secondary trend was at -.0535. Effectively stable. Here today, we are again seeing the outsized influence of interest rates. I saw 7.25% posted online this morning. I still believe these wild variations are transitional and we are not headed for a systemic decline in home values. Why? Supply and the fact that people need a place to live. People will adjust to a higher interest rate environment and realize that paying down your own mortgage is still a better investment than paying the Landlord’s mortgage. The proof will be what happens in the Spring.

Where should we look next?

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Appraiser legal stuff:

Data is from EBRDMLS and includes Oakland North of Park Blvd, South of Broadway Terrace, East of the City of Piedmont and West of Hwy 13, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 10/09/2022