Oakland (Claremont & Hiller Highlands)

by James Forquer

What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

The Appraiser’s Appraisal

Sold past 1-6 months (n=49) median (med) $1,550,000 Days on Market (DOM)=14

Sold past 7-12 months (n=50) med $1,780,000 DOM=13

This suggests a primary (year) change of -12.921%

Sold past 1-3 months (n=26) med $1,512,500 DOM=14

Sold past 4-6 months (n=23) med $1,550,000 DOM=13

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -2.419%.

There are 12 current active listings ranging from $459,000 to $2,889,000 with median DOM at 49 days. Range 10 – 125 days.

There are 8 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $699,000 to $2,399,000 with median DOM at 22 days. Range 8 – 61 days.

So, what’s going on? The 10/15 review of this area suggested a primary change of +3.939% and a secondary change of -8.908%. The 9/5 review suggested a primary change of +18.644% and a secondary change of -35.158% (!). It appears that the primary trend has turned negative, and the secondary trend has moderated. The secondary trend is very close to stable. This is the same pattern we see in many East Bay markets, and it suggests that the influence of increased interest rates is diminishing. I suspect that the moderation of the secondary trend will continue and that both the primary and secondary trend will return to positive territory. The secondary trend should go positive this year. The primary trend will follow as the market accumulates more sales which were not as adversely influenced by the interest rate environment. In short, I expect that the market will resume modest increases in the Spring. We really do not have enough housing capacity and sooner rather than later, the supply side dynamics will force prices to rise. That is my theory… This is all assuming that we do not have further interest rate shocks and that the employment environment remains solid.

Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!

Appraiser legal stuff:

CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com

Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of Oakland North of Hwy 24, South of the City of Berkeley, East and Telegraph Ave, and West of Contra Costa County, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/02/2022

#realestate