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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Oakland (North)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=82) median (med) $1,177,500 Days on Market (DOM)=19
Sold past 7-12 months (n=98) med $1,140,000 DOM=14
This suggests a primary (year) change of +3.289%
Sold past 1-3 months (n=33) med $950,000 DOM=25
Sold past 4-6 months (n=49) med $1,275,000 DOM=15
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -25.490% (!).
There are 31 current active listings ranging from $749,000 to $1,975,000 with median DOM at 61 days. Range 3 – 264 days.
There are 5 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $760,000 to $1,050,000 with median DOM at 43 days. Range 1 – 524 days.
So, what’s going on? The 10/19 review of North Oakland suggested a primary change of +16.706% and a secondary change of -12.692%. The 9/8 review suggested a primary change of +8.401% and a secondary change of +10.870%. Here we do not see the moderation of the secondary trend in fact, it has gone much further to the negative. It is interesting to note that the primary trend is still positive but has seen some variation. Perhaps this area is lagging behind some of the other East Bay markets. I expect that the decline in the secondary trend will moderate, and the primary trend will turn negative in the short term. This market demonstrates that different markets see different effects from the increase in interest rates. The wide trend swings are probably the result of current uncertainty for both buyers and sellers. It may be instructive to explore the variation in price points. Do higher or lower sales values respond differently to interest rates? That would be a whole separate analysis… Beyond that, we can conclude that this market is being depressed but we cannot say how long that will last. Maybe this is the best time to buy here.
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of Oakland North of Hwy 580, South of the City of Berkeley, East San Pablo Ave, and West of Hwy 24/Telegraph Ave, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/06/2022
#realestate
