San Francisco (Pacific Heights – Union St & Eastern Cow Hollow)

What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

The Appraiser’s Appraisal

The City of San Francisco (Pacific Heights-Union St & Eastern Cow Hollow)

Sold past 1-6 months (n=98) median (med) $1,472,500 Days on Market (DOM)=25

Sold past 7-12 months (n=129) med $1,900,000 DOM=20

This suggests a primary (year) change of -22.500%

Sold past 1-3 months (n=43) med $1,750,000 DOM=19

Sold past 4-6 months (n=55) med $1,395,500 DOM=33

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -25.488%.

There are 41 current active listings ranging from $549,500 to $35,000,000 with median DOM at 78 days.  Range 1 – 588 days.

There are 9 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $759,000 to $4,750,000 with median DOM at 92 days.  Range 8 – 157 days.

So, what’s going on?   There are no prior observations for this area.  The data for this market suggests significant declines in both primary and secondary trends.  This market still appears to be under the sway of interest rate increases.  If our model works, we would expect to see continued declines in the East Bay.  This is a test of that model, and we will have to wait and see.  My initial theory going into these market reviews, was that interest rate increases have forced the return of seasonality.  If this is true, we would expect to see price increases in the Spring.  There are multiple variables at work here.  Single family real estate is subject to decision which can be driven by emotion.  As such, it is a very hard market to predict.  Here, we are testing if prices in the center (SF) are the first to go up and prices in the outer areas (Antioch/Discovery Bay) are the first to go down.  We will have to come back to the last four markets we have looked at to see what the data tells us.  We then compare some of the East Bay markets to our 4 baseline areas.  That will be in about 5-6 weeks before the Spring selling season.  In the interim, we will continue to review some of the East Bay markets and see where they are going.

Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!

Appraiser legal stuff:

CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com

Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of San Francisco North of California St, South of Lombard St, East of Divisadero St and West of Van Ness Ave, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/20/2022

#realestate