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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Alamo Township (all)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=72) median (med) $2,400,000 Days on Market (DOM)=19
Sold past 7-12 months (n=101) med $2,900,000 DOM=7
This suggests a primary (year) change of -17.241%
Sold past 1-3 months (n=35) med $2,235,000 DOM=19
Sold past 4-6 months (n=37) med $2,550,000 DOM=18
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -12.535%.
There are 18 current active listings ranging from $1,199,000 to $8,900,000 with median DOM at 64 days. Range 3 – 185 days.
There are 7 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $975,000 to $5,895,000 with median DOM at 41 days. Range 25 – 138 days.
So, what’s going on? The 10/28 review of this market suggested a primary stable trend (0%) and a secondary decrease of -20.807%. The 9/17 review suggested a primary increase of +6.897% and a secondary decrease of -15.156%. The primary trend has gone from positive to stable and now negative. The secondary trend is still negative but, has moderated. This market currently looks to be in between the two SF markets we looked at earlier. We will have to come back to this to see if there are any discernible trends. As of now we can say that the secondary decrease has moderated. I would expect the secondary trend to continue to moderate and the primary trend to follow as the secondary figures age. If my initial theory is correct, we should see continued variation with modest increases in the Spring and Summer months. It is worth a reminder that the number one determinate of housing values, is employment saturation. Interest rates have a much more limited affect than employment. If employment remains strong, I expect most markets to start to recover. We shall see…
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com – jamesforquer@comcast.net
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes Alamo Township (all), all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/23/2022
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