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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
San Ramon (West)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=71) median (med) $1,525,000 Days on Market (DOM)=21
Sold past 7-12 months (n=124) med $1,900,000 DOM=6
This suggests a primary (year) change of -19.737%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=20) med $1,535,000 DOM=15
Sold past 4-6 months (n=51) med $1,500,000 DOM=27
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of +2.333%.
There are 8 current active listings ranging from $615,000 to $6,999,000 with median DOM at 24 days. Range 2 – 195 days.
There are 4 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $434,900 to $1,914,090 with median DOM at 54 days. Range 31 – 93 days.
11/4 review: primary change -8.727%; secondary change -12.500%. 9/22 review: primary change +35.015%; secondary change -14.618%.
So, what’s going on? The primary trend has turned negative, and the secondary trend has moderated and is now positive. We expected this to happen. As the quarter-to-quarter data ages, it is reflected in the overall (yearly) trends. Still, we are down for the year but, the moderation of the secondary trend is suggestive of a recovery. As the current quarter to quarter data ages, it will also be reflected in future primary (year) trends. It took about 3 months for the September quarter-to quarter decline to show up in the primary trend so, I would expect to see the primary trend start to recover in about 90 days. This is consistent with the theory that we will see increases in both the primary and secondary trends by the Spring of this year. We will just have to wait and see.
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com – jamesforquer@comcast.net
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of San Ramon West of Hwy 680, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 01/09/2023
#realestate
