Discovery Bay CA

What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

The Appraiser’s Appraisal

Discovery Bay (All)

Sold past 1-6 months (n=124) median (med) $775,000 Days on Market (DOM)=30

Sold past 7-12 months (n=128) med $839,000 DOM=13

This suggests a primary (yearly) change of -7.682%.

Sold past 1-3 months (n=55) med $760,000 DOM=46

Sold past 4-6 months (n=69) med $795,000 DOM=29

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -4.065%.

There are 31 current active listings ranging from $499,000 to $3,000,000 with median DOM at 61 days.  Range 5–321 days.

There are 20 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $520,000 to $3,800,000 with median DOM at 65 Days.  Range 2-197 days.

12/15 review: yearly change +1.768%; quarter-to-quarter change -4.052%.

So, what’s going on? We can see that the yearly trend has gone down since December and the quarter-to-quarter trend has remained just about the same.  We started looking at markets at the outer edge of Contra Costa County in an effort to build a predictive model and apply that to the immediate East Bay.  The hypothesis is that the central markets (think SF) are the most resilient experiencing price drops last and recovering first.  The outer markets are more volatile experiencing price drops first and recovering last.  If that applies, we expect that that any improvements in this market have already shown up in the more immediate East Bay.   I don’t see any clear pattern at this point, and I am not too confident that we will end up with a workable model.  We may made need more observations or perhaps look at more than one market at a single point in time.   It could be that looking at the quarter-to-quarter trends provides us the most reliable indicator of future yearly trends and that’s the best we can do.  This again reminds me of the old Appraiser’s adage: Trying to predict where the market is going, is kind of like trying to catch a falling safe.  Chances are you’re going to get hurt…  Still, I will keep looking.

Have any other real estate questions?   Want to know what is going on in a different market or sub-market?  Just ask!

Appraiser legal stuff:

CA Office of Real Estate Appraisers License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com jamesforquer@comcast.net  Data is from EBRDMLS and includes all of Discovery Bay Township, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 02/16/2023

Listing/Sales services provided through Coldwell Banker – Montclair   510-339-6134 Jim Forquer – CA Department of Real Estate License No. 01205407            #realestate