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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
San Ramon (West)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=104) median (med) $1,690,000 Days on Market (DOM)=10
Sold past 7-12 months (n=104) med $1,852,500 DOM=6
This suggests a primary (year) change of -8.772%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=41) med $1,575,000 DOM=29
Sold past 4-6 months (n=131) med $1,800,000 DOM=7
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -12.500%.
There are 14 current active listings ranging from $449,000 to $6,999,000 with median DOM at 33 days. Range 1 – 129.
There are 7 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $620,000 to $2,999,888 with median DOM at 31 days. Range 5 – 71 days.
So, what’s going on? The 9/22 review of the West side of San Ramon suggested a primary increase of 35.015% and a secondary decrease of 14.618%. I was suspicious of the 35% increase and still believe it was the result of a statistical anomaly or some other condition hidden in the raw data. The nature of market analysis is that we do not always get figures that make sense at first blush, and we have to consider other approaches. Regardless, the primary trend appears to have turned negative, and the secondary decrease has moderated. Still, the difference in the secondary decrease figures is really close to what would be considered stable (change of less than 2%). Days on market are up. I am not ready to say that this minor secondary decrease represents a continuing trend suggestive of a leveling market. We will need more data points to make that determination. Here again, we see the influence of seasonality and interest rates. We will have to come back and look at this market again in about a month.
Where should we look next?
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the city of San Ramon West of Hwy 680, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 11/04/2022
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