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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
El Cerrito (all)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=115) median (med) $1,250,000 Days on Market (DOM)=14
Sold past 7-12 months (n=67) med $1,250,000 DOM=13
This suggests a primary (year) change of -0%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=66) med $1,235,500 DOM=15
Sold past 4-6 months (n=49) med $1,310,000 DOM=13
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -5.687%.
There are 26 current active listings ranging from $699,000 to $2,298,000 with median DOM at 24 days. Range 1 – 160.
There are 13 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $799,000 to $1,999,000 with median DOM at 14 days. Range 7 – 58 days.
So, what’s going on? The 9/26 review of El Cerrito suggested a primary increase of 9.167% and a secondary decrease of 12.400%. The primary trend has turned stable and secondary trend has moderated. We have seen this secondary moderation in other markets recently and it is suggestive a market approaching equilibrium but, we are not there yet. Still, this tracks with my current theory that we have been forced into seasonality by interest rate increases and will see modest price increases near the Spring. The caveat is that real estate can be more volatile than the stock market due to the influence of individual actors responding emotionally to either interest rates or that special home. We will have to re-visit this market in the next month or so to see if the secondary moderation continues.
Where should we look next?
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of El Cerrito (all), all MLS residential listings, effective as of 11/10/2022
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