Facebook
X
Pinterest
Copy Link
What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Berkeley (West)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=27) median (med) $1,125,000 Days on Market (DOM)=13
Sold past 7-12 months (n=31) med $1,160,000 DOM=13
This suggests a primary (year) change of -3.017%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=19) med $1,100,000 DOM=13
Sold past 4-6 months (n=8) med $1,290,000 DOM=13
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -14.729%.
There are 6 current active listings ranging from $995,000 to $1,797,000 with median DOM at 27 days. Range 1 – 142.
There are 6 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $599,000 to $1,349,000 with median DOM at 31 days. Range 7 – 84 days.
So, what’s going on? The 9/29 review of the Western section of Berkeley suggested a primary increase of 10.481% and a secondary decrease of 14.583%. The primary increase has turned negative. The current secondary trend has to be taken with a grain of salt. The sample size (n=8) is well below what would be considered statistically significant. The roughly 14.5 % decrease we see here is not reliable however, in the context of the other areas of Berkeley it is consistent. South Berkeley saw a secondary decline of 16% as of 14 Nov. In appraisal practice, I would have to rely on the primary trend only. The other alternative would be to expand the search area until we get a large enough sample size to make credible conclusions. We have to take what the market gives us; we can’t make stuff up. Here, we will simply wait until the next review and see what the sales volume looks like. For now, it is sufficient to assume that this market is seeing the effects seasonality boosted by the interest rate environment.
Where should we look next?
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of Berkeley East of San Pablo Ave, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 11/15/2022
#realestate
