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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Castro Valley (All)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=282) median (med) $1,168,500 Days on Market (DOM)=15
Sold past 7-12 months (n=252) med 1,270,000 DOM=7
This suggests a primary (year) change of -7.992%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=131) med $1,025,000 DOM=20
Sold past 4-6 months (n=151) med $1,202,200 DOM=13
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -14.740%.
There are 52 current active listings ranging from $525,000 to 7,250,000 with median DOM at 37 days. Range 1 – 478.
There are 32 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $475,000 to $2,698,000 with median DOM at 26 days. Range 3 – 127 days.
So, what’s going on? The 10/07 review of Castro Valley Township suggested a primary decrease of -4.000% and a secondary decrease of 24.074%. The primary negative trend has accelerated, and the secondary negative trend has moderated. Moderation of the secondary trend may be instructive. At this time of year with typical seasonality, we would not expect this moderation. This suggests that the effect of interest rate increases on home values may be waning but, we will need more data points to confirm such a conclusion. Just as in many of the other markets we have looked at, we will have to come back and see what happens in next month or so. Another trend to look at are the days on market (DOM). We see they have gone up significantly both for the year and quarter to quarter. At this point, DOM may simply be a reflection of uncertainty by both buyers and sellers in what has become a very quirky market. I would not expect them to contract until the Spring, but we will just have to wait and see. The employment arena is also something to keep an eye on but don’t rely on Twitter for any good news there.
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License #AR041451 – JamesForquer.com
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes all of the Castro Valley Township, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 11/22/2022
#realestate
