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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Oakland (Temscal & Mosswood)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=31) median (med) $1,200,000 Days on Market (DOM)=14
Sold past 7-12 months (n=36) med $1,222,500 DOM=12
This suggests a primary (year) change of -1.840% which is effectively stable (change of less than 2%).
Sold past 1-3 months (n=13) med $1,275,000 DOM=15
Sold past 4-6 months (n=18) med $825,000 DOM=12
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of +54.545% (!).
There are 3 current active listings ranging from $349,000 to $769,000 with median DOM at 47 days. Range 4 – 125 days.
There are 5 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $750,000 to $1,098,000 with median DOM at 20 days. Range 6 – 61 days.
So, what’s going on? The 10/17 review of this area suggested a primary change of -4.959% and a secondary change of +4.315%. The 9/6 review suggested a primary change of +24.490% and a secondary change of -.0.984%. This market demonstrates the limits of looking at small areas using this method. The sample sizes are just too small to be reliable. I would put no credence in the current 54% quarter to quarter increase. In the appraisal practice, I would be apt to rely on the primary trend only or maybe expand the search area to the other side of Hwy 24. Of course, expanding the search risks drawing in areas with significant differences. Another option would be to look at the changes in dollar per square foot. Looking at the primary trend only, we can assume that this area appears to have seen the effect of interest rates. These effects may have run their course. Due to the limited sample sizes, these conclusions are tenuous at best. We will come back here in a month or and see if the sample sizes improve or consider some alternative analysis.
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of Oakland North of Hwy 580, South of 51st St, East Hwy 24, and West of Broadway, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/05/2022
#realestate
