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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Lafayette (all)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=167) median (med) $1,833,000 Days on Market (DOM)=10
Sold past 7-12 months (n=197) med $2,200,000 DOM=8
This suggests a primary (year) change of -16.682%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=73) med $1,815,000 DOM=10
Sold past 4-6 months (n=94) med $1,925,000 DOM=10
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -5.714%.
There are 33 current active listings ranging from $750,000 to $9,955,000 with median DOM at 54 days. Range 3 – 326 days.
There are 18 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $1,020,000 to $3,925,000 with median DOM at 47 days. Range 4 – 190 days.
So, what’s going on? The 10/25 review of Lafayette suggested a primary change of -7.451% and a secondary change of -16.312%. The 9/14 review suggested a primary change of +6.734% and a secondary change of -12.386%. The primary negative trend has accelerated. I would not be surprised to see the primary trends turn more negative in some markets as the sales data ages. This is expected. Here again, we see the secondary decrease moderating. It is still negative but not near as much as in October. (-5.5% verses -16%). Back to my current theory: People will become accustomed to higher interest rates as some buy into the market and still others refinance. Mortgages are still the cheapest money out there. The higher interest rates have forced the return of seasonality and made the market behave like a more “normal” per-mortgage crisis market. Not to be repetitive, but I expect prices to start to go back up in the spring. The secondary trend first, followed by the primary trend. We are simply returning to a normal market. How long will this last? Is this the time to overcome our fears and buy in?
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com – jamesforquer@comcast.net
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the Cit of Lafayette (all), all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/14/2022
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