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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
The City of Orinda (all)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=116) median (med) $1,190,000 Days on Market (DOM)=17
Sold past 7-12 months (n=135) med $2,190,000 DOM=7
This suggests a primary (year) change of -9.132%
Sold past 1-3 months (n=56) med $1,892,000 DOM=27
Sold past 4-6 months (n=60) med $2,100,000 DOM=11
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -9.905%.
There are 17 current active listings ranging from $999,500 to $6,395,000 with median DOM at 74 days. Range 21 – 298 days.
There are 7 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $1,049,000 to $3,199,000 with median DOM at 71 days. Range 16 – 153 days.
So, what’s going on? The 10/26 review of Orinda suggested a primary increase of +6.754% and a secondary decrease of -3.488%. The 9/15 review suggested a primary increase of +16.677% and a secondary decrease of -4.677%. It appears that the primary trend has turned negative and the secondary negative trend, has accelerated. Remember, we are looking back in time. Regardless, it would appear that interest rate increases are still a major player in this market. However, these trends do not appear to be as negative as the market we looked at in SF yesterday. This really puts the concentric circle model in question but, we do not have enough data points to be sure. Still, I would expect these trends to moderate provided rates stabilize. I think we have forced seasonality and will start to see modest increases in the Spring.
Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com
Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of Orinda (all), all MLS residential listings, effective as of 12/21/2022
#realestate
