The Kensington Market

What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

The Appraiser’s Appraisal

Kensington (All)

Sold past 1-6 months (n=28) median (med) $1,560,000 Days on Market (DOM)=13

Sold past 7-12 months (n=37) med $1,700,000 DOM=14

This suggests a primary (year) change of -8.235%.

Sold past 1-3 months (n=10) med $1,725,000 DOM=12

Sold past 4-6 months (n=18) med $1,442,500 DOM=14

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of +19.584%.

There are 4 current active listings ranging from $1,198,000 to $1,900,000 with median DOM at 4 days.  Range 1 – 53 days.

There is 1 pending listing (in contract) at $1,195,000 with DOM at 48 days.

11/8 review: primary change -3.904%; secondary change -7.022%.  9/24 review: primary change +0.476%(stable); secondary change -18.543%.

So, what’s going on?  The primary trend has turned negative, and the secondary trend has moderated and is now positive.  In fact, it is almost 20%!  Here again we see the secondary trend moderate which suggests that the trend for the year will follow.  We have to take this analysis with a grain of salt.  The sample sizes especially for the current quarter, are just at the threshold of what we would consider statistically significant.  This may not be a reliable picture of what is happening.  In the context of other markets we have looked at however, it is consistent.  We see this in many, but not all of the markets we have been looking at to this point.    The expectation is that we will see the quarter-to-quarter trend influence the primary trend (year) in about 90 days.  So…(modest?) increases in the Spring.    Time will tell.

Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!

Appraiser legal stuff:

CA OREA License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com  – jamesforquer@comcast.net

Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of Kensington, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 01/10/2023

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