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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
Castro Valley (All)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=254) median (med) $1,023,000 Days on Market (DOM)=20
Sold past 7-12 months (n=262) med $1,303,500 DOM=8
This suggests a primary (year) change of -21.519%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=100) med $1,019,914 DOM=18
Sold past 4-6 months (n=154 med $1,028,500 DOM=20
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -0.832% (stable).
There are 27 current active listings ranging from $575,000 to $7,250,900 with median DOM at 43 days. Range 1–541 days.
There are 19 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $749,950 to $3,488,800 with median DOM at 30 days. Range 5-301 days.
11/22 review: primary change -7.992%; secondary change -14.740%. 10/07 review: primary change -4.000; secondary change -24.072%.
So, what’s going on? The yearly (primary) trend has accelerated as expected. The -21.5% figure may seem alarming but, I believe that to be the bottom as it reflects the bottom quarter-to-quarter trend from 10/07. The current quarter-to-quarter trend is now considered stable, and I expect it to turn positive in the near term. Think 30 to 45 days. I further expect the yearly trend to follow in the next 60 to 90 days. We will just have to wait and see if I called this one correctly. The data points are almost large enough to use averages instead of medians. I looked at both and did not see much difference. It is best to use one measure of central tendency and stick with it to be consistent. Note the increase in DOM for the yearly figures. Interesting, no? Well, I guess you have to be an appraiser or Realtor …
Have any other real estate questions? Want to know what’s going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA Office of Real Estate Appraisers License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com – jamesforquer@comcast.net Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the Castro Valley Township (All), all MLS residential listings, effective as of 01/24/2023
Listing/Sales services provided through Coldwell Banker – Montclair 510-339-6134 Jim Forquer DRE No. 01205407
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