San Francisco CA (Pacific Heights, Union St & Eastern Cow Hollow)

by James Forquer

What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

The Appraiser’s Appraisal

San Francisco (Pacific Heights, Union St and Eastern Cow Hollow)

Sold past 1-6 months (n=78) median (med) $1,557,500 Days on Market (DOM)=25

Sold past 7-12 months (n=131) med 1,860,000 DOM=20

This suggests a primary (yearly) change of -16.263%.

Sold past 1-3 months (n=32) med $1,582,500 DOM=44

Sold past 4-6 months (n=46) med $1,542,500 DOM=21

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of +2.593%.

There are 56 current active listings ranging from $326,766 to $35,000,000 with median DOM at 32 days. Range 1–502 days.

There are 13 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $649,000 to $4,488,000 with median DOM at 31 Days. Range 4-128 days.

12/20 review: yearly change -20.500%; quarter-to-quarter change -25.448%.

So, what’s going on? This is the second of the two core markets in our hypotheses and if the reasoning follows, should be the most stable. We see that the yearly trend has moderated from its -20.5% bottom on 12/20 and the quarter-to-quarter trend has turned positive from its -25.5% bottom. So, what can we say? It appears that this market is recovering and if the model holds, we can expect the markets radiating out into the East Bay to do the same. We have already seen what looks like recovery in many parts of the East Bay. We will have to explore how this may allow us some modest predictions about the East Bay markets but, since we already see some recovery there it is tenuous at best. I am becoming more convinced that looking at the quarter-to-quarter trends for a given market, provides us with the best indicator of future yearly trends for that same market. Regardless, this was worth an attempt. I may have to stick with looking at micro-market trends and abandon the prognosticator gig which means I will not try to catch that falling safe…

Have any other real estate questions? Want to know what is going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!

Appraiser legal stuff:

CA Office of Real Estate Appraisers License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com jamesforquer@comcast.net Data is from EBRDMLS and includes the City of San Franciso North of California St, South of Lombard St, East of Divisadero St and West of Van Ness Ave, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 02/20/2023

Listing/Sales services provided through Coldwell Banker – Montclair 510-339-6134 Jim Forquer – CA Department of Real Estate License No. 01205407 #realestate