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What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?
The Appraiser’s Appraisal
City of Orinda (All)
Sold past 1-6 months (n=84) median (med) $1,892,000 Days on Market (DOM)=23
Sold past 7-12 months (n=161) med $2,225,000 DOM=8
This suggests a primary (yearly) change of -14.966%.
Sold past 1-3 months (n=28) med $1,747,500 DOM=29
Sold past 4-6 months (n=56) med $1,930,500 DOM=20
This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of -9.456%.
There are 17 current active listings ranging from $1,300,000 to $5,500,000 with median DOM at 33 days. Range 3–230 days.
There are 12 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $999,000 to $3,495,000 with median DOM at 25 Days. Range 7-175 days.
12/21 review: yearly change -9.132%; quarter-to-quarter change -9.905%. 10/26 review: yearly change +6.754%; quarter-to-quarter change -3.488%. 9/15 review: yearly change +16.677%; quarter-to-quarter change +4.677%.
So, what’s going on? This is bucking the common pattern. The yearly trend appears to have deteriorated, and the quarter-to-quarter trend looks to have neared its bottom. This market may be lagging with respect to improvements. Note the days on market (DOM), they have increased substantially. Still, I would expect that the quarter-to-quarter trend will start to moderate, and the yearly trend will follow. We are nearing the end of the period when we would typically expect seasonality. If this market does not start to improve, we can assume it is the result of interest rates. If the SF market we looked at yesterday is any indicator, we should start to see improvements here in the next 30 to 45 days. We will check back here in a month or so. In the interim, Orinda might just be on sale (for now).
Have any other real estate questions? Want to know what is going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!
Appraiser legal stuff:
CA Office of Real Estate Appraisers License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com jamesforquer@comcast.net Data is from EBRDMLS and includes all of the City of Orinda, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 02/22/2023
Listing/Sales services provided through Coldwell Banker – Montclair 510-339-6134 Jim Forquer – CA Department of Real Estate License No. 01205407
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