Kensington, CA

by James Forquer

What the heck is going on in the Real Estate Market?

The Appraiser’s Appraisal

Kinsington (all)

Sold past 1-6 months (n=20) median (med) $1,700,000 Days on Market (DOM)=13

Sold past 7-12 months (n=45) med $1,608,000 DOM=11

This suggests a primary (yearly) change of +5.721%.

Sold past 1-3 months (n=5) med $1,725,000 DOM=15

Sold past 4-6 months (n=15) med $1,675,000 DOM=11

This suggests a secondary (quarter to quarter) change of +2.985%.

There are 4 active listings ranging from $1,149,000 to $2,168,000 with a median DOM at 10 days. Range 3-54 days.

There are 9 pending listings (in contract) ranging from $895,000 to $2,195,000 with median DOM at 16 days. Range 3-52 days.

1/10 review: yearly change -8.235%; quarter-to-quarter change +19.584%. 11/08 review: yearly change -3.904%; quarter-to-quarter change -7.022%. 9/24 review: yearly change +0.476% (stable); quarter-to-quarter change –18.543%.

So, what’s going on? The yearly trend appears to have gone from negative to positive with the quarter-to-quarter trend coming down but, still positive. The sample size for the current quarter is well below what we would consider to be statistically significant. We cannot rely on the current figure. Still, a positive number is not unrealistic given the prior +19% observation. The sample size for the prior observation, however, was only 10. Anything less than 10 gets thrown out and even a sample size of 10 is suspect. In appraisal practice, I would rely on the yearly trend alone to account for time of sale adjustments. Here, we will just have to wait and see if the market provides us with more data points in the not-so-distant future. This market may be showing signs of improvement but then again, it may not…

Have any other real estate questions? Want to know what is going on in a different market or sub-market? Just ask!

Appraiser legal stuff:

CA Office of Real Estate Appraisers License No. AR041451 – JamesForquer.com jamesforquer@comcast.net Data is from EBRDMLS and includes all of the City of Kensington, all MLS residential listings, effective as of 03/06/2023

Listing/Sales services provided through Coldwell Banker – Montclair 510-339-6134 Jim Forquer – CA Department of Real Estate License No. 01205407

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